Separate the signal from the noise on tariffs and the damage done, thus far, is not significant. However that doesn’t mean all is well, says George Lagarias

In all the trade war noise, it is easy to miss just how much global trade conditions have deteriorated in the last few months. If, one year ago, someone would have told investors and businesses that the best-case scenario would be for average US tariffs to quadruple (from 2.5 per cent to over 10 per cent), they would have been considered a “doomsayer”. Adding that markets would cheer on the news, would have probably added disbelief.

Yet here we are, in the midst of a classic game of maximalist demands and then gradual de-escalation. Tariff reductions are more than welcome, of course, as they moderate the probability of an acute economic crisis. We expect more trade deals, however cosmetic in nature, to follow through in the next few weeks,........

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