What proportion of the civil service’s workload could AI handle today? What about in 10 years? Starmer could revolutionise Whitehall if he’s brave enough, writes Ed de Minckwitz

The recent announcement of a 15 per cent reduction in civil service spending, potentially affecting 10,000 to 15,000 roles, has been greeted with familiar reactions. For some, it is another swing of the austerity axe. For others, a necessary correction after a decade of bloat. But could it be the start of something else entirely? What if, rather than simply returning civil service headcount to pre-Covid baselines, this moment marked the first step towards something radically better: a civil service built for the age of superintelligence?

The Prime Minister recently offered a striking glimpse of that future: “No person’s substantive time should be spent on a task where digital or AI can do it better, quicker and to the same high quality and standard”. A striking line, but also a profound claim with sweeping implications. What proportion of the civil service’s current workload could AI handle today? What might that number be in five years? 10?

The civil service’s addition to accretion

The civil service was never designed for this kind of future. It has evolved by accretion, not reimagination. When confronted with a problem – a backlog, a surge in demand, a new policy priority – the default response is to hire more people. More case-handlers, more admin, more layers. In June 2016, the UK civil service employed 384,000 people. By December 2024, that number had ballooned to 514,000. Brexit and Covid-19 explain much of the growth, but they do not........

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