Consumer confidence has become a casual predictor of GDP. Labour can use this to their advantage, writes JL Partners senior data scientist Callum Hunter

Recent JL Partners polling reveals a troubling economic outlook: 43 per cent of voters expect sharp cost of living increases this year, with more than a quarter believing the economy will significantly worsen. On average, voters expect inflation to exceed seven per cent for 2025, despite official forecasts being lower.

But the government is unlikely to benefit from actual inflation rates being lower than public expectations. These public perceptions are shaped by everyday shopping experiences, where prices have been steadily increasing over the past two years. The disconnect between official statistics and lived experience creates a significant communication challenge for the government.

The bad news keeps coming: consumer confidence is rapidly declining. After standing at -13 post-election, GfK’s consumer confidence index fell to -20 by February 2025 and is projected to reach -27........

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