If you're not from Western Australia, the byelection in the state seat of Secret Harbour is unlikely to have been on your radar. But Labor, Liberal and One Nation strategists will be intently watching the result on the night of August 29.

Subscribe now for unlimited access.

Login or signup to continue reading

Early voting started on Monday in this Labor outer metropolitan seat, which lies mostly within federal Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie's electorate of Canning.

In an exit poll of 120 voters reported by the West Australian, half indicated they'd given their first preference to One Nation.

Obviously many caveats apply, including that this was the first day of pre-polling. But WA Premier Roger Cook has been warning Labor faces the "fight of our life" in what has previously been a safe Labor seat.

For One Nation, the stakes are also high. It would see a victory in Secret Harbour as placing it very well for its assault on Hastie in 2028. Pauline Hanson and her close WA backer Gina Rinehart have Hastie in their sights, especially because he gave evidence against VC winner Ben Roberts-Smith in his failed defamation case. Roberts-Smith now has strong Hanson-Rinehart support as he fights war crime charges.

"People like [One Nation campaign director] James Ashby are coming for me," Hastie told the ABC on Wednesday. And he's right.

Hanson is all in for the interests of WA these days, as shown in her rejection of the Productivity Commission recommendation last week to undo the excessively generous GST deal that state receives. This year Hanson has reversed a view she had a few years ago on GST redistribution.

Beyond Secret Harbour will be a bigger electoral test for One Nation: the November Victorian poll. So far, the party's campaign there appears still behind the eight-ball, but Ashby arrived on the ground this week reportedly "armed with an advertising budget and campaign strategy".

Federally, it is hard to comprehend the omnipresence of One Nation. Think back a year. In Newspoll the party was on 9 per cent. It would have been inconceivable then that Education Minister Jason Clare would tell a conference this week, in relation to his higher education legislation, "We do need to future-proof this legislation........

© Canberra Times