It's near-universally agreed that opposition policy development under Peter Dutton was too thin and too late. Now the Sussan Ley opposition is under pressure to produce policy that could arguably be premature.

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Before Christmas, Ley will unveil her immigration policy. She's already flagged it will be heavy on "principles". The question is whether it contains an overall number (and if so what that is), and how much detail there is.

Here's the dilemma: the more detailed the policy, the more likely it's out of date in two years, but the more general it is, the more critics will come down on Ley. The balance was still being fought over in the opposition this week.

Partly, this need for instant policy is about the split in the Liberals over what they stand for. Like two ideological armies, conservatives and moderates have joined battle, each wanting to occupy the internal policy ground as soon as possible. Formulating the immigration policy is reflecting the fractures.

Beyond the pressure to rush, Ley has another fundamental problem: how robust should the opposition make its broad policy pitch?

In a major speech in September, Ley urged moving from the age of "dependency" ("the growing expectation that government will provide for every need and solve every problem by spending more"), arguing against middle class welfare. It's the sort of thing you'd expect Liberals to believe, as part of their credo about containing government spending. But the hazards of running such an argument in an election campaign are obvious.

Taking existing entitlements away from people has always been hard politically - these days, it would seem near impossible, especially given the cost-of-living squeeze.

The cynics might say: in opposition you shut up, in government you act. The Albanese opposition went along with the Coalition government's stage three income tax cuts, and changed them (eventually) in 2024. Dutton was pilloried for his proposed cuts to the public service (not least because they were presented as a crude sledge hammer against the number of bureaucrats). As it looks to its next........

© Canberra Times