Australia's geography will always shape our defence strategy: a vast island with no land borders, thousands of kilometres from major powers, and surrounded by ocean approaches that favour defenders.

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Unlike Ukraine or Taiwan, Australia faces no threat of large-scale invasion. No regional power currently has, or is likely to develop in the foreseeable future, the amphibious lift and sustainment capacity required to mount such an operation. That reality should liberate our thinking.

Australia's 2024 National Defence Strategy emphasises that "an invasion of Australia is an unlikely prospect," prioritising denial of access to our sea and air approaches over continental defence. The NDS and the 2023 Defence Strategic Review highlight deterrence by denial, focusing on regional stability rather than repelling border crossings.

Our problem is not tanks crossing the border. It's something far more fundamental: our dependence on the outside world for the essentials that keep the country running. Australia is one of the world's most exposed nations when it comes to reliance on imports. Much of what powers our economy arrives by sea or air: fuel, pharmaceuticals, machinery, fertiliser, electronics, and key industrial inputs.

In any regional crisis, it won't be a landing force that threatens us; it will be interruptions to these lifelines. Our greatest vulnerability is not the enemy at the gate, but the ships or planes that don't arrive.

This is one relevant lesson from Ukraine: the strategic consequences of stressed supply chains and societies slow to adapt. Modern conflict punishes states with fragile logistics and those that assume global markets........

© Canberra Times