When I was in the Defence Intelligence Organisation, we analysed foreign military leaders - their strengths, weaknesses, health status and likely successors. The CIA's Office of Leadership Analysis did much the same for political figures, even attempting to collect biological samples for health assessment.

Subscribe now for unlimited access.

Login or signup to continue reading

One assumes Australia's Office of National Intelligence maintains that analytical capability - particularly when interpreting the behaviour of a president as unconventional as Donald Trump, whose unpredictable behaviour increasingly shapes strategic outcomes and alliance dynamics.

To non-Americans, President Trump's conduct can appear increasingly erratic. A recent example was the US military attack on Iran, reported as occurring following pressure from Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu - without a clearly articulated American rationale, and reportedly against advice from the US intelligence community. The absence of a coherent strategic objective has raised concerns among allies about how such actions fit within broader US policy.

Then there was Trump's awkward reference to Japan's World War II attack on Pearl Harbour, which he brought up during the March 19 Oval Office meeting with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Trump invoked Pearl Harbour to justify not notifying allies before the US's initial strikes on Iran, prompting visible discomfort from the Japanese prime minister and audible groans from the press gallery. Such moments matter diplomatically, as symbolism and historical memory carry weight in alliance relationships.

What can be said, more cautiously, is that in 2026 many American observers see Trump's recent public behaviour as more erratic or unusual. A February 2026 Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 61 percent of Americans (including 30 percent of Republicans) believe he has "become erratic with age". At the same time, that remains a political and public-perception judgment, not a medical diagnosis, and should be treated as such.

Trump has long demonstrated impulsiveness, grievance-driven rhetoric, norm-breaking, and a taste for provocation - often intertwined with personal gain and family brand-building. What some interpret as deterioration may instead be an intensification of long-standing traits, shaped by stress, political pressure and the diminishing presence of moderating influences. His behaviour may reflect personality, strategy, ageing, or a reduced capacity to filter responses, rather than any specific diagnosable disorder.

In his second term, Trump has built an administration that places a premium on personal loyalty, selecting advisers less inclined to challenge him. In any system of government-especially one as complex as the US-internal constraint matters. Leaders benefit from dissenting voices that test assumptions and scrutinise decisions before they are acted upon. Where those voices are muted, behaviour that might once have been moderated can instead be endorsed, increasing the risk of miscalculation.

On mental health, no treating physician has released any formal diagnosis of cognitive decline, dementia or any other clinical condition. Remote diagnosis is discouraged by the American Psychiatric Association's Goldwater Rule because it cannot be verified without direct examination and consent. Claims circulating in media or online attributing speech patterns or emotional intensity to neurological decline remain unproven inferences rather than established fact-and should be treated with caution.

Age is relevant - Trump will turn 80 in June 2026 - but aging outcomes vary widely. Many people remain highly functional into their eighties; others do not. Without transparent, longitudinal medical data - which presidents are not required to disclose - observers are left to speculate whether perceived changes reflect pathology, style or simply the continuation of long-familiar behaviour under fewer constraints. In that sense, uncertainty itself becomes part of the strategic environment.

Could Trump's increasingly unconventional behaviour lead to removal from office? In theory, yes. In practice, only if it became so severe and broadly accepted that his own vice president, cabinet and significant numbers in Congress turned against him. Given that Trump has surrounded himself with loyalists, that appears politically unlikely without a dramatic deterioration, acute incapacity, or major scandal that erodes elite support. Even then, the 25th Amendment has never been used for cognitive concerns; its rare invocations have involved clear, temporary physical incapacity.

Finally, how should foreign leaders such as Prime Minister Albanese deal with Trump to secure results-through confrontation, accommodation or calculated flattery? Experience so far suggests that neither defiance nor capitulation consistently works. Trump often responds poorly to public challenge, yet he rewards outcomes framed as wins he can claim domestically-whether in terms of prestige, economics or political advantage.

For Australia, the most effective approach is pragmatic rather than ideological: being firm on core interests, avoiding unnecessary public friction and framing proposals in ways that align with Trump's preference for deal-making and visible domestic wins. This requires careful preparation, disciplined messaging and an understanding of how decisions are made within the US political system.

This does not require compromising our sovereignty or values. But it does require recognition that personality analysis now plays an unusually large role in statecraft - particularly during high-stakes crises such as the conflict in the Middle East, where impulsive Trump decisions and threatening demands for allied support carry real risks of conflict escalation and long-term economic disruption.

Professor Clive Williams is Director of the Terrorism Research Centre and a member of the International Academy for Investigative Psychology. clive.williams@terrint.org

Decoding Trump: How Australia must navigate the President's erratic behaviour

Israeli settlers smash cars, set fires in the West Bank

Wars cause spike in security fears among young people

Germany boosts defence links with Japan, next Australia

N Korea's Kim, teen daughter pictured driving new tank

Terrorism probe after fatal US university shooting

Today's top stories curated by our news team. Also includes evening update.

Don't miss updates on news about the Public Service.

Grab a quick bite of today's latest news from around the region and the nation.

Catch up on the news of the day and unwind with great reading for your evening.

Get the editor's insights: what's happening & why it matters.

Stay in the know on news that matters to you with twice weekly newsletters from The Senior.

Going out or staying in? Find out what's on.

The latest news, results & expert analysis.

Early Look At David Pope

Your exclusive preview of David Pope's latest cartoon.

Join our weekly poll for Canberra Times readers.

We've selected the best reading for your weekend.

Get the latest property and development news here.

Every Saturday and Tuesday, explore destinations deals, tips & travel writing to transport you around the globe.

Sharp. Close to the ground. Digging deep. Your weekday morning newsletter on national affairs, politics and more.

Your essential national news digest: all the big issues on Wednesday and great reading every Saturday.

Get the very best journalism from The Canberra Times by signing up to our special reports.

Voice of Real Australia

Get real, Australia! Let the ACM network's editors and journalists bring you news and views from all over.

Get news, reviews and expert insights every Thursday from CarGuide, ACM's exclusive motoring partner.

Be the first to know when news breaks.

Your digital replica of Today's Paper. Ready to read from 5am!

Your favourite puzzles

Test your skills with interactive crosswords, sudoku & trivia. Fresh daily!

© Canberra Times