A week into the election campaign and the numbers are stark.

When the number-crunchers massage the arithmetic of many different polls, what comes out is news many Conservatives will find hard to swallow.

The probability of the Liberals under Mark Carney winning a majority of House of Commons seats.

75 per cent.

Gulp.

The probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority.

15 per cent.

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Here is the even tougher-to-swallow part.

The probability of the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre winning the most seats but not a majority.

9 per cent.

I’ve saved the worst for last.

After all that time with the Conservatives projected to win a landslide victory we are left with staggering arithmetic.

Now, there is almost a month to go before voting day. Anything could happen. With U.S. President Donald Trump on the scene absolutely anything could happen.

The shine could come off of Carney’s halo.

More Canadians could wake up from their hysteria-induced fog.

But the Conservative probability winning a majority of seats, something they need to win in order to push through their many........

© Calgary Herald