The global landscape of goods trade is currently undergoing a significant transformation. The established flows of commerce are being reshaped by economic, political, and technological forces. Since 2000s, this change and global trade imbalances have become more prominent.

Four key metrics now define this shifting landscape: trade intensity, geographic distance, import concentration, and a newly prominent factor “geopolitical distance”. Together, these indicators reveal how deeply the global trade map is being redrawn and why developing countries like Pakistan must adapt urgently.

The new coordinates of global trade

Trade Intensity remained a key indicator of globalization but is no longer that effective. Although trade continues to grow in volume, its share relative to GDP has stagnated in many regions. Countries are focusing more on domestic value addition, digital services, and sustainability over absolute trade volumes.

Geographic Distance seemed to matter less in an interconnected world but now is reasserting its relevance. As countries seek to shorten supply chains in response to disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, proximity is gaining importance. Nearshoring and regional production hubs are becoming more attractive than distant low-cost manufacturing.

Import Concentration is now seen as a vulnerability. Reliance on a few countries for critical goods (e.g., semiconductors, energy, or pharmaceutical) can quickly turn into a strategic liability in times of crisis. Many countries are diversifying supply sources to build resilience.

Geopolitical Distance is a novel and powerful concept in today’s world. Countries are strategizing and........

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