It didn’t take a war speech. Just a social media post. And before anyone could double-check if the words were deliberate or just another digital impulse, markets had already moved.

Defence stocks, from Seoul to Stockholm, lit up after Donald Trump suggested NATO should shoot down Russian jets if they violate allied airspace. Just hours later, he added Ukraine could win back all its territory — an abrupt pivot from previous ambiguity. That was enough to light a fire under military-industrial equities.

The rotation was immediate. European defence firms gained in the 2–5.8 percent range. Saab AB rose 5.8 percent. Hanwha Aerospace in South Korea surged 5.9 percent, Japan’s IHI climbed nearly 10 perent. Australia’s DroneShield jumped more than 7 percent. These weren’t stray moves — they formed a coordinated spike that looked less like a one-day bounce and more like a rerating.

And why not? Trump didn’t just speak to conflict. He spoke to continuity — of spending, of escalation, of disruption. Each of those is a line item in the model of every quant desk that’s long volatility, and long the machinery that monetises it.

There’s no certainty, of course, that this new stance will hold. It could unravel by the weekend. But none of that matters to the tape.........

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