Donald Trump’s recently proposed tariff regime has sent shockwaves across the global economic spectrum. While large economies like China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union are expected to absorb the shock through strategic adjustments, countries like Pakistan – small, export-reliant, and economically fragile – find themselves at the receiving end of a disproportionate blow.

The imposition of a 29% tariff on Pakistani exports to the United States threatens not only to reduce trade flows but to deeply undermine Pakistan’s economic foundations, destabilizing its export portfolio, employment base, and poverty reduction efforts.

In 2023, the United States exported goods worth $3.07 trillion globally, while Pakistan’s entire export portfolio stood at just $35.15 billion – a scale mismatch that highlights the one-sided vulnerability.

Among Pakistan’s exports, around $5.01 billion were directed to the United States, accounting for nearly 14.3% of its total exports. With a 29% tariff now hanging over these exports, especially in textiles – Pakistan’s chief export sector – there is growing concern that these earnings could be slashed by up to $700 million annually.

The US economy is not critically dependent on Pakistan’s exports. Most of the goods from Pakistan – textiles, general merchandise, and lower-tier engineering products – are neither strategically essential nor irreplaceable.

These items often serve niche consumer segments, such as the Pakistani diaspora in the US, and are easily substitutable by similar or superior products from countries like India, Bangladesh, or Vietnam.

India in particular, holds a competitive edge due to a more favourable exchange rate, better trade agreements, and higher product quality. These factors make Indian exports more appealing and valuable to US importers,........

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