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How absence of exposure analysis fuels GLOF risks in G-B

23 0
05.09.2025

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent one of the most serious climate-induced hazards in high mountain environments. These sudden and often catastrophic events occur when a moraine- or ice-dammed glacial lake releases vast quantities of water, debris, and sediment downstream, overwhelming communities and infrastructure. In High Mountain Asia (HMA), the risk is particularly pronounced.

The region holds nearly 95,000 glaciers and around 30,000 glacial lakes, covering an estimated 2,000 km². Accelerated retreat of glaciers losing between 0.06 and 0.4 m water equivalent per year since the 1960s has contributed to the rapid expansion of such lakes. Historical records show that GLOFs have already caused over 12,000 fatalities worldwide during the last century, alongside significant economic losses and infrastructure damage.

Within Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) is the most glaciated territory, containing more ice mass outside the polar regions than anywhere else on Earth. A satellite-based inventory indicates the presence of over 13,000 glaciers across Pakistan, many of them concentrated in G-B. Alongside these glaciers, approximately 3,044 glacial lakes exist within the Upper Indus Basin, of which 660 are located in the Gilgit sub-basin.

Of these, thirty-six have been officially declared dangerous, with at least seven lakes posing immediate and high-level threats to downstream communities. Scientific assessments typically classify lakes exceeding 0.1 km² in area or with volumes greater than one million cubic meters as potentially dangerous, since such lakes have the capacity to generate destructive outburst floods.

Despite these alarming figures, the way GLOF risk is approached in G-B remains partial and incomplete. Early warning systems (EWS) have been deployed at........

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