When US intelligence revealed that Iran had loaded sea mines near the Strait of Hormuz on July 1, it sent an unmistakable message to the West: Tehran is not backing down after US and Israeli airstrikes devastated its nuclear facilities.

Although the Strait remains open, the mere threat of closure is enough to send ripples across global markets. The conflict might appear as yet another Middle Eastern flashpoint, but the trickle-down effects are going to be much worse. Asia’s largest economies – China, India, Japan, and South Korea – stand dangerously exposed.

Around 80% of their Middle Eastern oil passes through the Strait, an artery vital to global trade. Even a short disruption would send economic shockwaves beyond Tehran, Washington, or Tel Aviv.

Vice President JD Vance recently pronounced the “Trump Doctrine” in Ohio, redefining American foreign policy. The new doctrine prioritizes aggressive diplomacy and, if necessary, deploying overwhelming military force followed by a swift withdrawal.

Iran’s recent defiance near the Strait of Hormuz is already putting the Trump Doctrine on trial, testing how far Washington will go to enforce its red lines. Earlier, Trump demonstrated a tough stance, ordering airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, offering the first glimpse of how this doctrine might unfold. Yet, despite US escalation, CIA analyses indicate the Iranian nuclear programme was set back only a few months; not years, as Trump had claimed.

The Pentagon, however, has shown prudence. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed Trump’s optimism, whereas General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, noted cautiously that “all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction,” though he stopped short of confirming the end of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Tehran retaliated by expelling UN nuclear inspectors, heightening fears of a renewed nuclear drive.

Trump’s foreign policy does not operate in isolation however. His aggressive stance abroad corresponds closely with domestic priorities articulated in the new “Big Beautiful Bill,” a fiscal package designed to operationalize his doctrine by........

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