Pakistan’s agriculture is not just a food-producing sector — it is the economic backbone of rural Pakistan and the foundation of national food security. The collapse of wheat in FY25 is not a standalone event but a symptom of deep-rooted institutional decay, exacerbated by uncoordinated policymaking and a lack of accountability at both federal and provincial levels.

If meaningful reforms are not undertaken now, no amount of relief will prevent the next agricultural collapse. What is needed is a long-term, climate-resilient and farmer-centric vision — one that views agriculture not as a fiscal burden, but as a strategic investment in Pakistan’s future.

Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which employs more than a third of the country’s population, stands at a perilous crossroads. Despite some concessions in the 2025–26 federal budget, the sector continues to suffer from deep-seated structural failures, most recently exposed by the wheat market collapse of the past fiscal year. The latest budget attempts to offer short-term relief through credit expansion and tax exemptions, but these measures fall short of addressing the systemic dysfunction that now threatens Pakistan’s food security and rural economy.

In the 2024–25 wheat season, Pakistan recorded an impressive harvest of 28.5 million tonnes from 8.9 million hectares. Yet this apparent success turned into one of the most financially ruinous crop cycles in recent history. The government, operating under IMF-imposed fiscal constraints, withdrew from wheat procurement and failed to announce a Minimum Support Price (MSP). Simultaneously, it either authorized or failed to prevent the import of 3.5 million tonnes of wheat worth US$1 billion — despite a domestic surplus.

The result was a catastrophic price collapse, with rates falling from Rs 3,900–4,000 per maund to just Rs 2,200–2,400 — far below the estimated production cost of Rs 3,200. This........

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