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The drowning of a treaty

44 1
13.09.2025

For the first time in history, India has been accused of weaponizing climate change—not with bombs or missiles, but through silence, data withholding, and river manipulation.

In the catastrophic floods of 2025, when Pakistan was submerged, India allegedly withheld critical hydrological data on the Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers, amplifying destruction downstream. It was not an accident. It was, as many believe, a deliberate act of using climate change as a “threat multiplier”—a weapon that exacerbates insecurity, worsens mistrust, and multiplies human suffering.

This was not only a humanitarian catastrophe but also the unravelling of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a treaty hailed for decades as a rare success in transboundary water management. What happened in 2025 marked not just the drowning of villages and cities, but the drowning of trust, law, and the last fragile thread holding two nuclear rivals together.

The IWT, signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank, divided the six rivers of the Indus basin. India received rights over the eastern rivers—the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—while Pakistan retained rights to the western rivers—the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Crucially, Article VI mandated the regular exchange of hydrological and meteorological data on river flows, reservoir operations, and canal withdrawals. Transparency was its backbone, preventing suspicion and ensuring accountability.

After the devastating super flood of 1988, both states agreed to expand data sharing. By 1989, they instituted a near-hourly protocol during monsoon months, from July 10 to October 1, covering three critical Indian dams: the Ranjit Sagar Dam (Ravi), the Bhakra Dam (Sutlej), and the Pong Dam (Beas). Thanks to Syed Jamat Ali Shah, former Indus Water Commissioner. For years, this fragile bridge of cooperation saved lives. But in 2025, that bridge collapsed when silence replaced transparency.

As Pakistan looked to the Treaty for protection, a grave Himalayan blunder had already been set in motion. Inside Ladakh, Indian-administered Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh, India expanded massive infrastructure, primarily for the Indian armed forces.

Glaciers were........

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