The recent minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 17-18 revealed a range of opinions among the voting members.

There was a clear division regarding monetary policy, with two members distinctly advocating for a rate cut in July. The majority anticipate at least one reduction in interest rates, although a few members oppose any easing this year.

The combination of slowing economic activity, weaker labour market conditions, and the heightened risk of inflation aggravated by trade and tariff barriers presents a challenging scenario. Currently, the market is estimating a 63% chance of a US rate cut in September. Overall, the impact of inflation appears to be softer than previously anticipated, leading to a focus next week on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to show a slight increase.

Trade tensions are intensifying following President Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs on Brazil and Canada.

In response, Brazil’s President has declared reciprocal measures, refusing to yield to external pressure.

Starting next month, Trump has already planned to raise the tariff on Canadian imports from 25% to 35%. Canada........

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