The government narrative on the state of the economy, not surprisingly, remains extremely upbeat though there are periodic glimpses of a deep-seated concern, given the palpable general public discontent over this claim.

The objective, no doubt, is to alter market perceptions that shape consumer attitudes which, in turn, may raise consumption levels that can kick-start productivity and raise employment opportunities.

The government insists that the rise in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate is on an upward trajectory – a claim substantiated by the 3.09 percent GDP growth for 2024-25 and 3.71 percent estimated in the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year announced by the national accounts committee (NAC) on 30 December 2025 (uploaded on the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics PBS website).

The main driver of this growth, the government data collection agencies point out, is higher industrial productivity reflected by rising large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector growth estimated at 5.02 percent July-November 2025 in the Finance Division’s December update and outlook compared to negative 0.62 percent in the same period last year with the very low base accounting for the bulk of the spurt in the growth calculation in the current year. The update for July-November was estimated at 6.01 percent by the PBS.

However, the crescendo of complaints by the LSM private sector has raised legitimate concerns about the accuracy of the data that include: (i) electricity cross subsidy paid for by industry raises input costs making our exports uncompetitive – a claim supported by a decline in exports – and incentivises smuggling across hundreds of miles of our porous borders; (ii) the proactive audit of industrial units – touted as enforcement – is limited to sales tax and particularly to sugar, cement and now fertilizer sub-sectors which is an indirect tax passed onto the consumers whose incidence on the poor is greater than on the rich; (iii) delayed refunds though the Islamabad High Court recently slapped a one lakh rupee fine on Commissioner Inland Revenue in his personal capacity that may........

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