The consolidated federal and provincial fiscal operations data for fiscal year 2024-25 assumes nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 124,150 million rupees (defined as total market value of goods and services minus imports which declined marginally from 55198 million dollars July-June 2023 to 54798 million dollars July-June 2024 and unadjusted for inflation for the year), which is 17 percent higher than the nominal revised growth in 2023-24 of 106,045 million rupees.

Fiscal year 2022-23 nominal GDP was budgeted at 78.3 million rupees also reflecting a rise of 17 percent in comparison to the previous year’s 67 trillion rupees (revised estimates).

Miftah Ismail presented the budget speech in June 2022 and argued that “a fundamental problem of our economy has been that the rate of economic growth remained 3-4 percent which is inconsistent with the growth rate of our population.

In contrast to it, when the growth rate exceeded 5 - 6 percent, it led to uncontrollable current account deficit. The reason behind this phenomenon is that to advance the economy we have been giving concession to affluent classes. This used to result in increase in imports while exports remained stagnant…… A gigantic challenge before us is to achieve growth without current account deficit. Next year at least 5 percent growth will be achieved without a balance of payment problem.

During the next year, GDP will be increased from 67 trillion to 78.3 trillion rupees.“ While he did highlight two important factors that require change – GDP growth must exceed population growth and concessions to the affluent class must end – yet his focus on nominal instead of real GDP growth is baffling; besides his projections, based on budgeted expenditure and revenue,........

© Business Recorder