We’ve been naive. To beat the tobacco mafia, we need to think like the mafia

September 8, 2026 — 6:00pm

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Six years ago, the Commonwealth collected $16.3 billion in tobacco excise. That figure will have collapsed to $4.1 billion this year, Treasury estimates, and by the end of the decade it’ll be just $2 billion. Meanwhile, investigations of wastewater by the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that since 2017 nicotine consumption (including from illegal vapes) has increased by 40 per cent.

Let’s face it: the mafia has won the tobacco wars.

The Commonwealth now faces competitors in the form of black market shops on every second suburban strip. Those competitors have 80 per cent market share to the Commonwealth’s 20 per cent. The Commonwealth is a bit player now with the main field of competition between the black market suppliers – and that is why we have seen more than 200 firebombed tobacco shops in Victoria alone.

Let’s be clear about who we are dealing with. Organised crime is run like a business. It has suppliers, logistics, retail outlets and market share estimates. Its product costs a couple of dollars to make and sells for $15 to $20 against a legal price of $40 to $50, of which about $30 is tax. It responds to margins as any firm would, and uses arson the way a legit business uses advertising.

Imagine an organised crime business watching its revenues fall from $16........

© Brisbane Times