It looks increasingly likely that the US will go to war with Iran again, and this time it might not just be targeted airstrikes and calibrated responses, but an open-ended conflict with no clearly communicated or readily attainable outcome for either side. For both countries that would be a high-stakes roll of the dice.

I’m not sure Donald Trump would have chosen this path if he were starting from scratch, which may be why he’s reportedly considering a limited strike aimed at encouraging Iran to return for talks with concessions. Nevertheless, he finds himself boxed into a corner toward which he’s been headed since his first term in office when he revoked the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. He has little room for escape unless he eases his demands, having set the bar higher than the US needs or the Islamic Republic was ever going to accept.

© Bloomberg