At first glance, very little has changed for the European Union’s terms of trade with the US following President Donald Trump’s tariff defeat at the Supreme Court on Friday. Last year the bloc agreed to a 15% tariff to avoid an ugly transatlantic trade war. Today, 15% is the level Trump has vowed to impose using alternative tools not subject to the court ruling.

And yet, everything has changed. The mechanisms to make a new 15% levy stick may make the tariffs less sweeping and more temporary, with bureaucratic hoops to jump through in the form of approval from Congress or lengthy investigations to demonstrate unfair competition. For all the tough Trumpian language, looming midterm elections and legal setbacks are real constraints. There’s a “whole lot more uncertainty” than before, says trade expert Dmitry Grozoubinski, despite an optically similar tariff level.

© Bloomberg