Timur Kulibayev, a billionaire oil and gas tycoon, is reportedly negotiating a deal with the Kazakh government that could see him pay around $1 billion in connection with a government investigation into the wealth he accumulated during the presidency of his father-in-law, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Kulibayev, a prominent figure in Kazakhstan’s business and political spheres, is married to Nazarbayev’s second daughter, Dinara, and has long been a key player in the nation’s energy sector. However, as Kazakhstan embarks on an era of increased scrutiny over the accumulation of wealth by politically connected individuals, this potential payout could mark a significant development in the ongoing debate over state asset recovery and the fate of oligarchs in the post-Nazarbayev era.

The government’s probe into Kulibayev’s wealth, which includes both his personal fortune and that of his wife, is part of broader efforts to address corruption, mismanagement, and the concentration of economic power that characterized Nazarbayev’s three-decade-long rule. While Kulibayev has not commented publicly on the matter, a Bloomberg report reveals that discussions are centered on a combination of cash payments and investments, with some reports indicating that a portion of the payout might be channeled into two oil services firms. Despite the significant sum involved, the deal would reportedly not include any formal admission of wrongdoing by Kulibayev, a detail that has raised questions about the broader implications of the arrangement.

The timing of the potential payout coincides with a broader shift in Kazakhstan’s political and economic climate following the resignation of Nazarbayev in 2019. His successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has made it clear that his administration would not tolerate the excessive accumulation of wealth by oligarchs and politically connected elites. A critical part of this agenda has been the so-called “asset recovery” program, which targets those who are believed to have profited illicitly from their ties to the former........

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