The shifting political winds in the United States could serve as a significant boost to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a leader who has long positioned himself as a dissenter against the European Union’s liberal consensus. As one of the few European leaders to openly back Donald Trump, Orban has taken a calculated risk-one that could pay off handsomely should Trump reclaim the White House in 2025. Yet, the ultimate success of Orban’s geopolitical strategy hinges on his ability to secure reelection in Hungary’s 2026 elections.

Orban was one of the earliest and most vocal European supporters of Trump. While most Western leaders distanced themselves from the former US president, Orban embraced him, reasoning that even a Democratic alternative-be it Joe Biden or Kamala Harris-would not worsen Washington’s pressure on Hungary. Orban’s political instincts often keep him ahead of the curve, and his alignment with Trump now appears prescient.

A Trump victory would likely mean an end to the overt US efforts to undermine Hungary’s domestic policies. It could also provide greater legitimacy for Orban’s sovereignist and nationalist foreign policy, which prioritizes national interest over ideological alignment with the EU’s liberal framework. Moreover, Trump’s commitment to resolving the Ukraine conflict resonates strongly with Orban’s long-standing calls for peace, positioning him as a key figure in European diplomatic debates.

Critics have often dismissed Hungary’s foreign policy as unorthodox, but that assumes the continued dominance of the Western liberal order. In reality, that order is weakening. Orban offers a pragmatic approach, which he describes as combining idealism (the concept of the nation-state) with realism (a practical assessment of global power shifts). This philosophy underpins........

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