The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — or “Quad” — has long been hyped as the seeds of an “Asian NATO.” Made up of the US, Japan, India, and Australia, the Quad has been Washington’s big play for the Indo-Pacific. But with US President Donald Trump’s “America First” approach, many are asking if the group has a future.

Squeezed by Trump’s neo-Monroeist foreign policy and his deal-making style with allies, QUAD is fading fast. Analysts such as Michael Shoebridge (Director of Strategic Analysis Australia) are calling it “the incredible shrinking Quad”: its July 2025 ministers’ statement for instance boiled down to vague talk on sea security and cyber issues, ditching the meatier promises from Biden’s time.

Du Lan (Deputy Director at Asia-Pacific Institute) notes that Washington has “concentrated mostly on domestic reforms and ending conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict”, with “little effort into the Asia-Pacific region.” Moreover, the Quad is also troubled by trade spats, US tariffs on India and gripes over New Delhi’s Russian oil buys.

Trump’s team often seems way more keen on flexing in the Western Hemisphere than footing bills across the Pacific. Threats to seize Panama’s canal as a “national asset” over “exorbitant” fees, plus arm-twisting Mexico, Venezuela, and Brazil, scream neo-Monroeism — a modern twist on........

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