European Union ministers recently reaffirmed that enlargement remains a “top priority” despite the bloc’s growing challenges. The rhetoric of expansion is nothing new, of course. What is new is the degree to which this mantra now collides with harsh realities: economic decline, a fractured energy landscape, and the world’s geopolitical reorientation. The paradox of seeking enlargement while facing internal disarray may well define the Union’s next decade.

A recent Bruegel report lays bare the structural dilemmas. The study points to rising fragmentation in global trade, higher energy prices, and weakened competitiveness. It warns that Europe risks falling further behind in innovation and productivity, especially vis-à-vis China and also the US.

In the short term, the document identifies exposure to supply chain disruptions and persistent inflation. Medium-term, Europe may face “de-risking” pressures that limit cooperation with its largest neighbors and trading partners. The authors thus recommend greater fiscal coordination, more investment in green and digital transitions, and “strategic autonomy.” But one may recall that “strategic autonomy”, as I’ve commented before, has been the European mantra for years, with thus far little to show for it.

As a matter of fact, enlargement itself aggravates these very risks. For one thing, to even speak of integrating Ukraine at this stage reveals the Union’s contradictions. Post-Maidan Kyiv, with all its ethnic minorities’ civil rights issues, has, as I’ve been discussing for a few years now, pursued an ethnocratic nation-building........

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