The ceasefire set to come into effect on January 12, barring unforeseen setbacks, marks a pivotal moment for the Middle East. It signals not only the cessation of hostilities but also a profound transformation in the regional balance of power. Islamist militant groups that have long shaped the dynamics of the region-Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria-are emerging from the Gaza war considerably weakened. Only the Houthis in Yemen appear stronger, though their position is precarious. Meanwhile, the Islamic State (IS) remains a diminished force, far from its former prominence.

For groups like Hamas, survival after such a large-scale conflict can be construed as an achievement. Yet, the significant concessions made by Hamas leading up to the ceasefire underscore its diminished state. Militarily, the group has faced devastating losses, with senior and mid-level commanders killed in Israel’s relentless campaign. Politically, Hamas finds itself isolated, with its authority in Gaza fragmented and its legitimacy under scrutiny by the very people it claims to represent.

The impact of the conflict on Hamas’s leadership has been stark. Yahya Sinwar, the hardline leader and architect of the 2023 surprise attack on Israel that triggered the war, was killed in southern Gaza in October. Ismail Haniyeh, then the political head of Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran by Israeli operatives. This decapitation of Hamas’s leadership has left the organization divided. The split is particularly evident between its overseas political leadership, which has adopted a more pragmatic stance, and the hardliners in Gaza, led by Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya’s brother.

Mohammed Sinwar now holds significant sway, particularly because he controls the hostages critical to the ceasefire agreement. Experts warn that this........

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