The South Caucasus has long been a geopolitical chessboard where great powers projected influence and pursued their rivalries. For decades, the dynamics of the region were defined by the tug-of-war between Russia, the West, and regional actors such as Iran and Türkiye. Yet, a profound shift is underway. With the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process gaining traction and Russia’s influence receding, a new zeitgeist is emerging-one that is being carefully read and acted upon by Türkiye and the Gulf states. Together, they are seizing a moment to recalibrate their regional policies and strengthen their presence in a part of the world once dominated by competing empires and Cold War politics.

For much of modern history, the South Caucasus-encompassing Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia-was defined by rivalry, instability, and the competing interventions of outside powers. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh set the tone for decades of violence and insecurity. Russia, by virtue of geography and history, often played the role of both mediator and manipulator, seeking to maintain its grip on the region while preventing Western encroachment. Iran, meanwhile, used ethnic, cultural, and religious ties to project influence, though with limited success.

However, recent developments have reshaped the playing field. Five key shifts stand out:

These changes have created an opening for Türkiye and the Gulf states, allowing them to engage the South Caucasus not as peripheral players but as emerging power brokers.

The Yerevan-Baku agreement represents more than just an end to one of the world’s most intractable conflicts. It is also a turning point for regional diplomacy. While the US provided overarching support, both Türkiye and the Gulf states-particularly the UAE-played crucial roles.

The........

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