Lebanon once again finds itself perched precariously on the edge of political and social chaos. On August 29, the Lebanese government is scheduled to discuss and vote on a controversial plan for Hezbollah’s disarmament-a proposal that has triggered alarm bells across Beirut, Washington, and Tel Aviv. The move is part of a broader strategy being pushed by the United States, with the blessing of France, to end Hezbollah’s status as the country’s most powerful armed non-state actor. But the initiative, while ambitious, is fraught with risk. It pits Prime Minister Nawaf Salam against Hezbollah in a high-stakes political standoff that could either redefine Lebanon’s sovereignty or plunge the fragile state deeper into crisis.

At the heart of the dispute is Washington’s demand that Hezbollah lay down its arms before any talks about Israeli withdrawal from contested Lebanese territory even begin. Put simply, the US is asking Hezbollah to surrender its last major bargaining chip without offering anything tangible in return. A paper presented by US envoy Tom Barrack is explicit on this point: no guarantees of Israeli withdrawal, no cessation of hostilities, only a vague promise that Washington and Paris will “press” Israel to comply. For Hezbollah, this is tantamount to political suicide. For the Lebanese government, it is a gamble that could either restore its authority or shatter it completely.

Israel’s position only adds to the complexity. While Jerusalem has stated that it “could” withdraw if Hezbollah disarms, it has stopped short of making any binding commitments. In fact, influential circles in Israel appear to favor a harder line. The Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank with ties to decision-making bodies in Tel Aviv, recently released a report arguing that Israel should not withdraw from Lebanon or Syria under any circumstances. Instead, the report recommends a policy of continuous airstrikes and occasional ground raids to keep Hezbollah weakened and unable to rebuild.

This stance reflects a deeper strategic calculation: for Israel, Hezbollah’s disarmament without guarantees would be a dream........

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