The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has once again emerged as a flashpoint in regional politics, symbolizing national pride for Ethiopia and existential peril for Egypt. Last week, Ethiopia officially inaugurated the massive hydroelectric project in a nationally televised ceremony, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hailing it as a “historic achievement,” likening it to the legendary Ethiopian victory at Adwa. For Addis Ababa, the GERD represents a 14-year struggle for development and sovereignty. For Cairo, it is a looming threat to the lifeline of more than 110 million Egyptians. Between these competing narratives lies a crisis defined by mistrust, conflicting claims, and complex decisions ahead.

From the outset, Egypt has viewed the GERD with alarm. The country already lives below the international water poverty line, relying on an outdated Nile allocation of 55.5 billion cubic meters per year-set decades ago and insufficient for a population that has more than doubled since then. The Nile provides 98 percent of Egypt’s freshwater, making it not just a river but the foundation of the nation’s civilization, economy, and daily life.

The GERD, with its 74-billion-cubic-meter reservoir, threatens this fragile balance. The risk for Egypt is not permanent water diversion but Ethiopia’s ability to unilaterally control the timing and volume of water releases, particularly during droughts. Such control could leave Egypt vulnerable to severe shortages that would devastate agriculture, energy production, and public health.

Sudan, though weakened by internal conflict, shares these concerns. Its Roseires Dam and other downstream infrastructure could face significant risks if Ethiopia operates the GERD without transparent coordination or agreed-upon safeguards.

Ethiopia has consistently downplayed these risks, framing the GERD as a hydroelectric project that “consumes no water.” According to Addis Ababa, the dam only delays water on its way downstream while producing much-needed electricity for over 120 million Ethiopians.........

© Blitz