The Trump administration’s imposition of steep new tariffs on Indian imports has triggered a wave of uncertainty across both economies. With levies of 50% now in force-comprised of a 25% tariff announced in late July and another 25% “penalty” in early August for India’s purchases of Russian oil and defense imports-the question is whether the true economic pain will be borne by India, or whether American consumers themselves will ultimately feel the sting.

The answer, increasingly, appears to be both.

The tariffs cover a wide spectrum of Indian goods, striking at some of the country’s most globally competitive sectors. Exports of textiles, apparel, gems and jewelry, seafood, leather, footwear, handicrafts, processed foods, and metals are all targeted. Trade experts argue that these levies will disrupt supply chains that have been built over decades and threaten hundreds of thousands of jobs in India.

Some of the hardest-hit industries are also among India’s most labor-intensive. The diamond polishing industry, which relies heavily on exports to the United States, faces significant disruptions. The US is India’s single largest market for gems and jewelry, importing more than $10 billion annually-nearly 30% of the industry’s global trade. The Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) has warned that the tariffs will “stall exports and threaten thousands of jobs,” with cascading effects throughout India’s economy.

The shrimp sector presents another striking example. Nearly half-48%-of India’s shrimp export revenue comes from the US According to ratings agency Crisil, these tariffs could devastate the marine export sector, wiping out jobs and undermining coastal economies where shrimp farming provides livelihoods.

Similarly, India’s renowned home textile and carpet industry, which supplies American households with everything from rugs to bed linens, faces a sharp drop in sales. Trade think tank GTRI estimates that key export sectors may suffer losses of $18.6 billion, translating into a 43% overall decline in shipments to the US. Such a plunge not........

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