In 2018, President Donald Trump’s first social-media post of the year captured a sentiment long held by many observers of US-Pakistan relations. Trump expressed frustration over what he saw as more than a decade of American generosity met with deception and duplicity. Over the preceding 15 years, he noted, the United States had “foolishly” given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid, only to receive “nothing but lies and deceit” in return. His administration subsequently suspended security assistance to Pakistan, citing the country’s continued harboring of terrorists, including its concealment of Osama bin Laden for nearly a decade after the September 11, 2001, attacks.

At the time, this stance seemed to signal a more confrontational US approach toward Pakistan-a country long criticized for providing sanctuary, as well as logistical and intelligence support, to terrorist organizations. Pakistan also maintains a strategic alliance with China, a country that has emerged as America’s foremost geopolitical and economic rival. Yet, remarkably, in the years since, the United States has moved toward an embrace of Pakistan, raising questions about the drivers behind this policy reversal.

Trump administration officials framed the rapprochement as a pragmatic step. Pakistan, they argued, could be a critical partner in containing Iran and combating terrorist groups that threaten US interests in South and Central Asia. However, historical patterns suggest that Pakistan’s reliability as a security partner is questionable at best. The country has repeatedly undermined US counterterrorism objectives while cultivating ties with groups hostile to Western interests. There is little reason to believe that these patterns have fundamentally changed.

The more compelling explanation for the Trump administration’s pivot lies in the intersection of the president’s personal financial interests and his transactional approach to foreign policy. In April, Pakistan signed a controversial investment

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