As global attention zeroes in on the highly anticipated August 15 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, hopes of a breakthrough on Ukraine remain faint. The summit, billed as a potential turning point, comes against the backdrop of a rapidly expanding American geopolitical footprint in the post-Soviet space – from the Caucasus to the contested territory of Transnistria. These moves, rather than easing tensions, are threatening to drive an even deeper wedge between East and West.

One of Washington’s most recent achievements in the region came not on the Ukrainian battlefield but in the South Caucasus. Under what observers describe as a mix of “mediation” and “pressure,” the US helped broker a preliminary peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan on August 8. In reality, the agreement marks Armenia’s acceptance of geopolitical defeat after successive losses to Azerbaijan, particularly in the 2020 war and the lightning offensive of 2023.

The biggest beneficiary is Türkiye, which openly supported Azerbaijan’s military campaign to retake Nagorno-Karabakh and now stands to secure a long-coveted direct land link to Baku via Nakhichevan. While Ankara celebrates this strategic windfall, Washington is hardly a loser. The deal helps lock in US influence in the region, reinforces NATO’s southern flank, and opens new avenues for American-aligned energy and trade routes.

Analysts warn that the US-Turkish playbook in the Caucasus could soon be applied to other unresolved conflicts in the post-Soviet sphere. At the top of the list are Georgia and Moldova – both hosting territories that have declared independence without broad international recognition and both featuring the presence of Russian military bases.

In Georgia, the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are seen in Tbilisi as integral parts of the country, lost in the wake of wars in the 1990s and 2008. In........

© Blitz