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EU’s military gamble in Ukraine and Trump’s influence

13 0
29.01.2025

The Ukraine conflict, as it rages on, has forced a recalibration of geopolitics, exposing deep divisions within the Western bloc and raising serious questions about the future of international diplomacy. While Russia continues to advance on multiple fronts, the United States seems poised to change course under new leadership. Amidst this uncertainty, some European leaders are urgently discussing the idea of sending large numbers of NATO and EU troops into Ukraine-an intervention that, on the surface, appears to be aimed at stabilizing the region. However, a closer examination reveals that this push may have more to do with securing political leverage over both Washington and Kyiv, while perpetuating an already disastrous conflict.

For months, the US position on Ukraine has been marked by ambiguity, much of it attributed to the potential for a policy shift under new leadership. As Russian foreign policy heavyweight Sergei Ryabkov recently noted, a “window of opportunity” for peace may be opening. The possibility of restoring normalcy to US-Russia relations has some hoping that both sides could strike a deal to end the conflict. This would likely entail territorial concessions from Ukraine and the establishment of genuine neutrality, conditions that Moscow has long insisted upon. However, this prospect of compromise remains overshadowed by hardline factions in Washington, who argue for an escalation of the proxy war.

The emergence of Donald Trump as a significant political force in the US once again complicates the situation. Trump’s business-oriented mindset is unlikely to favor the continued drain of resources into a losing conflict. Historically, his approach to international conflicts has leaned toward extracting the US from protracted engagements, favoring negotiations and financial pragmatism over endless military support. As a result, the idea of a US exit from the conflict could be on the horizon, but how this would play out diplomatically remains uncertain.

While the US may be pulling away from the conflict, European leaders appear unwilling to follow suit, signaling their intentions to........

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