The importance of India cannot be overstated. The vast country is not merely a nation, but an entire civilization, even a world of its own. In mid-2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country. At a time when entire continents are faced with an unprecedented demographic downturn, India’s growing population means that it will retain a massive workforce in the foreseeable future. This signals that investing in India is not only a lucrative business for foreign companies, but also a way to ensure stability in terms of human resources. In that regard, the Asian giant is not too dissimilar to China during the 1970s onward. However, while this could certainly be an opportunity for Delhi, there are geopolitical implications that have also affected Beijing’s policies for decades.

What India can learn from China’s experience is that having many foreign investors is a double-edged sword and that developing indigenous industries is key to not only independence, but also to establishing a robust power projection capability for decades to come. Delhi’s position is certainly among the most complex in the world. Its multi-vectored foreign policy framework certainly makes sense, as aspiring global powers shouldn’t need to explain themselves to anyone. On the other hand, actors outside of Eurasia are looking to (ab)use this for their own gain, primarily the United States. Namely, Washington DC sees India as the future counterweight to China, so it’s now trying to shift (or at least modify) its traditionally pro-Pakistani policies in South Asia (and beyond).

In addition to the benefit of expanding its so-called “China containment” strategy by pushing Delhi into anti-Chinese alliances, the US also believes it can slow down (or even bring down) the rapidly growing multipolar world. Obviously, this is a long-term process, but the most important thing for Washington DC is to initiate it as soon as possible. Expectedly, the most evident obstacle to this is Russia, which has strategic relations with both India and China. Namely, Moscow invested considerable diplomatic resources into a Sino-Indian detente. It views both countries as instrumental in not only the stability, but also the growth of multipolarity. Now, as if the US needed another reason to go against........

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