China’s growing influence is reshaping South Asia’s balance of power. India’s traditional strengths endure, but without a bold response, its regional role may erode.

As South Asia emerges as a central arena of geopolitical rivalry, India’s longstanding regional primacy is facing unprecedented challenges. Over the past two decades, China has steadily and systematically expanded its presence across the region—leveraging infrastructure investments, debt-diplomacy, military partnerships, and diplomatic maneuvers to reshape the strategic landscape. From Pakistan to Bangladesh, and increasingly in other neighboring states, Beijing has embedded itself deeply into national policies and strategic calculations.

While India retains key advantages in size, geography, capability, and regional goodwill, China’s assertive engagement is rapidly narrowing New Delhi’s strategic options and complicating its ability to shape outcomes in its immediate neighborhood.

At the core of China’s regional strategy lies its use of economic tools to foster dependency. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), touted as a global infrastructure project, is in reality a vehicle for geopolitical gain. China offers soft loans to economically struggling nations, which may appear attractive in the short term compared to the conditionalities imposed by international financial institutions like the IMF or World Bank. However, these loans often lack transparency and sustainability, leading to long-term dependency.

Pakistan is a textbook case. Heavily reliant on Chinese arms and loans, it has effectively become a vassal state. Over 80% of its military hardware is sourced from China—according to SIPRI, 81% of Pakistan’s arms imports between 2019 and 2023 came from China. World Bank estimates suggest Pakistan owes China around $28 billion, with repayments expected to stretch across four decades, and over 40% of its export earnings going toward debt servicing. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), though strategically vital for China, has yielded little economic return for Islamabad and continues to face serious security threats.

Gwadar, often touted as the flagship of CPEC, has become what one local cynically described as “a place where no jets fly and no ships come.” The new Gwadar International Airport, completed with Chinese funding, remains largely non-operational. As one analyst put it, “This airport is not for Pakistan or Gwadar. It is for China, so they can have secure access for their citizens to Gwadar and Balochistan.”

Bangladesh appears to be following a similar trajectory. China’s loans to Bangladesh are estimated at over $ 6.1 billion, mostly tied to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects such as the Padma Bridge Rail Link, Payra Port, the Karnaphuli Tunnel in Chittagong, the Dhaka–Ashulia Elevated Expressway, and various coal and power projects. As Bangladesh grapples with internal unrest and economic slowdown—exacerbated after the fall of the Hasina government in August 2024—China has stepped in with promises of concessional loans and extended repayment timelines. These gestures, however, come with

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