As the US-Iran negotiations regarding the latter’s nuclear program and the threat of attacking Iran loom high, both the Trump administration and Iran ought to consider very carefully the potentially colossal regional repercussions if they do not reach an agreement. If Netanyahu convinces Trump during their meeting, at the time of this writing, that attacking Iran now, amid Tehran’s weakened proxies and internal turmoil, will bring regime change, they’ll both be gravely mistaken. Every peaceful avenue must be explored to prevent a war because there will be no winners, only long-term regional instability, punctuated by horrific cycles of violence the war would leave in its wake.

A US attack would carry a high risk of regional war. Iran has vowed to strike US bases and Israel. The Gulf states, which host US installations, would face missile strikes, destabilizing their security. Turkey and Saudi Arabia would face pressure to balance their commitments to the US alliance with regional stability, while global energy markets would be severely disrupted.

Iran’s Retaliatory Options

Iran’s retaliatory calculus is shaped by its current weakness—a degraded proxy network, internal unrest, and economic distress that significantly constrain its options. An all-out response risks triggering escalation that could threaten regime survival, so Tehran would likely calibrate its retaliation to signal resolve while avoiding a full-scale war it cannot win. Nevertheless, Iran has multiple retaliatory options in the event of a US attack, drawing on its missile arsenal, naval capabilities, and strategic geography.

1-Iran would launch ballistic missiles and drones at American military installations........

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