The Sahel, a vast belt of land stretching across Africa just south of the Sahara, has in recent years become the epicenter of global terrorism. In 2024 alone, the region accounted for 51 percent of worldwide terrorism-related fatalities, amounting to nearly 4,000 deaths in that year and a staggering 20,000 since 2019. This explosive rise is not the product of isolated insurgencies but rather the culmination of collapsed security frameworks, predatory foreign involvement, and the professionalization of militant groups that have learned to exploit the region’s vulnerabilities.

Eighteen years ago, the Sahel accounted for just 1 percent of global terrorism fatalities. Today, it has become a testing ground for hybrid warfare and extremist violence, a transformation that underscores the failure of conventional counterterrorism approaches.

The current wave of violence in the Sahel cannot be understood without considering the departure of France’s long-standing military presence and the downsizing of UN stabilization missions. For nearly a decade, France fielded thousands of troops and poured billions of dollars into efforts to combat Islamist insurgencies across Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. These efforts were often criticized for their paternalistic approach and limited results, but their withdrawal in 2022–2023 left behind an enormous security vacuum.

Where French forces and UN contingents once secured urban centers and key border crossings, chaos now reigns. The departure created the conditions for extremist groups, mercenary formations, and fragile national armies to jostle for dominance in what is now one of the most heavily contested regions on the planet.

Islamist factions such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) have seized upon the moment. Exploiting weak governance, ethnic rivalries, and widespread discontent, these groups have expanded their influence over rural communities while embedding themselves within lucrative illicit economies.

The result has been a massive territorial gain. By 2024, extremist groups controlled an estimated 950,000 square kilometers – roughly the size of Tanzania. Their........

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