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Libya’s engineered collapse: How oil, militias, and foreign powers hijacked the state

49 0
18.06.2025

More than a decade has passed since the 2011 uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi’s regime, yet instead of blossoming into a stable democracy or even a functioning state, Libya has spiraled into a carefully engineered disaster. The country’s institutional framework has all but disintegrated, with key state responsibilities outsourced-or outright surrendered-to militias, criminal syndicates, and foreign actors. What remains is a hollow shell of sovereignty where violence is not a breakdown of order but a calculated mechanism of governance, and chaos is not a byproduct of failure but a feature of elite strategy.

Today’s Libya is no longer a nation-state in any meaningful sense. It is a fragmented landscape of militia-run enclaves, extractive economies, and foreign military outposts. What makes this situation particularly alarming is that Libya is not a failed state due to a lack of resources. On the contrary, it generates roughly $50 million daily from oil exports-an estimated 1.2 million barrels per day. But this wealth has become a curse rather than a blessing, hijacked by kleptocratic networks that sustain warlordism rather than public services. The result is a predatory rentier system where institutional dysfunction is deliberately maintained to enrich a narrow elite class.

The events in Tripoli last month illustrate the endemic violence plaguing Libya. The assassination of a militia commander, under the pretense of negotiation, ignited clashes that left nine civilians dead and at least 47 wounded. These are not isolated incidents. They are part of a systemic pattern where militias operate with total impunity, transforming urban centers into battlegrounds and using violence as leverage in power-sharing deals.

The so-called Government of National Unity (GNU) based in Tripoli presides over a capital city split into over a hundred militia-controlled zones. The state’s nominal authority is entirely contingent on the loyalty of these armed groups, whose primary allegiance is not to the Libyan people but to the continued flow of oil money and foreign patronage. For example, the 444th Combat Brigade, one of the most powerful armed factions in........

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