The escalating confrontation between Iran and the coalition formed by Israel and the United States is reshaping geopolitical calculations across the globe. As missile exchanges intensify and tensions mount in the Middle East, analysts are increasingly focused on one of the most strategically critical waterways in the world: the Strait of Hormuz. If the crisis deepens and this narrow maritime corridor is closed, the repercussions would extend far beyond the Gulf, triggering a global scramble for alternative energy routes and suppliers.

Tehran’s current strategy appears calculated and deliberate, reflecting decades of military planning and geopolitical preparation. The approach can be understood in two stages. First, Iran aims to overwhelm or neutralize American military installations scattered across the Gulf region. These bases serve as logistical hubs and defensive outposts for the United States and its allies. Disrupting them would weaken the coalition’s operational capacity and create a strategic advantage for Tehran.

The second stage is even more consequential: a shift toward targeting maritime infrastructure and naval installations with the objective of controlling or shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil flows through this narrow passage between Iran and Oman. Any disruption there would immediately shake global energy markets and threaten the economic stability of many countries.

For major energy importers, the stakes are immense. China, for instance, relies heavily on oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 40 percent of Beijing’s oil imports transit this route, and a substantial share originates directly from Iran. A prolonged closure would therefore pose severe economic risks not only for China but also for other major Asian economies such as Japan and India. Industrial production, energy supply chains, and economic growth in these countries depend on uninterrupted access to........

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