Poland’s presidential election is heading for a fierce and polarising second-round run-off after pro-European Union candidate and Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski eked out a narrow first-round victory on May 18. Backed by the country’s centrist government, Trzaskowski secured 31.36% of the vote, narrowly ahead of nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, who garnered 29.54%. The two will now face off in a high-stakes final vote scheduled for June 1.

Despite his lead, Trzaskowski faces an uphill battle, analysts warn, as right-wing and far-right candidates collectively won a majority of the vote in the first round. The outcome underscores the growing influence of nationalist and conservative forces in Poland, part of a wider trend across Europe.

The tight race reflects deep divisions within Polish society. Trzaskowski represents a liberal, progressive, and pro-EU vision for Poland, aligned with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition. In contrast, Nawrocki champions a more nationalist and socially conservative agenda, drawing ideological inspiration from the Trump-era politics of identity and sovereignty.

Nawrocki’s chances are buoyed by the strong showing of far-right candidates in the first round, who together secured 21.15% of the vote. Chief among them was Slawomir Mentzen, a multi-millionaire libertarian entrepreneur known for his staunch anti-abortion stance, euroscepticism, and hardline position on immigration. Mentzen has accused Ukraine’s war refugees – over a million of whom currently live in Poland – of exploiting the country’s welfare and........

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