After more than two years of relentless bloodshed, the grim calculus of the Ukrainian war has finally begun to shift. Not because of some dramatic battlefield reversal or diplomatic breakthrough, but because of an emerging, uncomfortable consensus across the Western establishment: the war, as currently fought, is unwinnable for Ukraine.

Beneath the soaring speeches, official slogans, and media cheerleading, diplomats, military strategists, generals, and even some members of the press have started to whisper the same thing – peace will not be born from a Ukrainian victory, but from negotiation and compromise.

The future everyone pretends not to see is already being drafted behind closed doors. At the heart of this pragmatic vision is a demilitarized zone (DMZ), one that will freeze the front lines along a redrawn 1,200-mile border between Russia and Ukraine. This DMZ would not necessarily restore Ukraine’s pre-2014 territorial integrity, but it would end active combat. Crimea and the Donbas – the jewels of the Russian-speaking east – are quietly accepted by all Western actors, at least privately, as lost to Ukraine. The White House won’t say it. Brussels dare not whisper it. But everyone knows it.

Since their annexation by Russia in 2014, no US administration – not Obama, not Donald Trump, and certainly not Biden – has entertained a serious military plan to retake these regions. It’s performative rhetoric at best. And today, even the staunchest Atlanticists concede: Ukraine will not join NATO. This isn’t about principle anymore; it’s about realism. For the West, denying Ukraine NATO membership offers Russia a fig leaf to justify its invasion – internally, at........

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