As tensions escalate in the Persian Gulf following US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions, India finds itself navigating a familiar yet increasingly complex geopolitical dilemma. The crisis has ignited intense debate across political, bureaucratic, and strategic circles in New Delhi, exposing the delicate balance between energy security, diplomatic positioning, economic resilience, and the safety of millions of Indian expatriates in the Gulf.

For India-the world’s most populous nation and one of the fastest-growing major economies-the stakes are substantial. The unfolding conflict is not merely a distant geopolitical event; it carries immediate and potentially long-term consequences for domestic inflation, fiscal stability, diaspora security, and foreign policy coherence.

The most immediate and tangible impact of the crisis is on energy markets. India imports over 85 percent of its crude oil requirements, making it acutely vulnerable to disruptions in global supply chains. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas responded swiftly, issuing a statement emphasizing that the government is “continuously monitoring the evolving situation” and will take all necessary steps to ensure the “availability and affordability” of petroleum products.

This reassurance reflects the government’s priority: insulating domestic markets from volatility. However, market fundamentals suggest that while physical shortages may not be immediate, price shocks are unavoidable if hostilities persist.

According to Amit Bhandari of Gateway House, India typically maintains approximately 50 days of petroleum and product inventories at refineries. This buffer offers temporary insulation against supply disruptions. However, price transmission occurs almost instantaneously in globalized energy markets. Even without a physical shortage, elevated crude prices translate into higher import bills, currency pressures, and potential inflationary effects.

Sumit Ritolia of Kpler adds that India holds roughly 100 million barrels of crude in refineries and strategic reserves, including facilities in Vishakhapatnam, Mangaluru, and Padur. Of these, about 80–85 million barrels are considered usable. This provides an estimated 30 to 40 days of baseline coverage if supply routes are compromised.

Retired Colonel Rohit Dev offers an even more optimistic estimate, suggesting that India could comfortably manage for 60 to 75 days without alarm, given diversified supplier networks and the presence of Russian tankers in regional waters. Over the past few years, India has expanded its oil supplier base from 27 countries to around 40,........

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