In one of the most exciting and dramatic awards seasons ever, the field is wide open in several fields. BBC film critics give their expert predictions for the major Academy Awards categories.

Caryn James: It has been a fun awards season, watching the nominees for best picture pinball around. Anora became the early favourite as the brash young voice of the future, until the bonkers Emilia Pérez became the Oscar darling for a minute, then Conclave had its moment as the smart mainstream choice, until The Brutalist announced itself as the epic with artistic ambitions until... full circle, Anora is the frontrunner again. It says a lot about the strength and variety of films this year that such mayhem could happen at all. Anora – funny, original and a little bit heartbreaking – is the likely winner. And among the realistic choices (six of the nominees might as well be category filler, and Karla Soíia Gascón's unearthed offensive tweets shattered Emilia's chances), Anora should win. But lurking in the background is Conclave, which could win by consensus, given that voters rank their choices in this category. Simplistic scenario: votes for the top film are so scattered that Conclave finally gets the most votes because it's everybody's second choice. Plus, it really is a satisfying political thriller that happens to be set in the Vatican, and its Bafta and SAG awards are a sign of real support. In a year that has had so many frontrunners, a Conclave win is entirely plausible.

Nicholas Barber: This time last year, Oppenheimer was firm favourite to win the Oscar for best picture – and plenty more besides. This year, things aren't so simple. What we can say, judging by all the other awards ceremonies that have been and gone this year, is that Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance and Wicked are vanishingly unlikely to take home the biggest prize of the night. None of them has whipped up the enthusiasm that's required from both the public and the critics. That leaves us with Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown and Conclave – and over the last few weeks I've wavered between all four of them as the most likely best picture winner. As I write, Anora seems to be the favourite, and I can understand why. It's a film about contemporary American life made by an American auteur, and it balances uncompromising grittiness with exuberant, crowd-pleasing flair. In a year when arguments could be made for and against so many contenders, Anora has come to feel like the choice that could please everyone, so it may well complete the journey it began when it won the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival last May.

Nicholas Barber: This is a strong category, but I doubt that the Academy's voters will go for a French director who was largely unknown in the US before she made The Substance, so Coralie Fargeat is out. The various Emilia Pérez backlashes have hurt Jacques Audiard's chances, and A Complete Unknown hasn't received much praise for its directing as such, so James Mangold is a long shot, too. That means that the best director Oscar will either go to Sean Baker, for the verve and naturalism he brings to Anora, or to Brady Corbet, for the valiant artistic vision of The Brutalist. But the amiable Baker has made several excellent films that haven't garnered many awards, including Tangerine and The Florida Project, so I suspect that he will be the Academy's choice.

Caryn James: This race comes down to a stark contrast, between Sean Baker, whose Anora is a beautifully orchestrated contemporary romp, and Brady Corbet, whose The Brutalist wilfully announces its ambition as the kind of film they don't make anymore, an historical epic complete with intermission. It's a good guess that Baker is likely to triumph, because he won the Directors Guild Award and the film won the Producers Guild award, two major predictors of the Oscars. And he should win. He made Anora feel effortless, but beneath that apparent ease is some masterful work, as he navigates the changes in tone – from fairy tale to screwball comedy to drama – that make the film so rich. Coralie Fargeat deserves her place here for her confident direction of The Substance, but it's really a two-man race.

Caryn James: Adrian Brody was on his way to making this a done deal, having won every major precursor from the Golden Globe to the Bafta, until Timothée Chalamet got in his way by winning the SAG award for A Complete Unknown. Oscar voting had ended by the time Chalamet won, but as an indicator of how the votes go, SAG has a great track record. You can never underestimate Oscar voters' affection for a biopic, and Chalamet's take on Bob Dylan was a true embodiment of a character as well as a spot-on impersonation. But Brody is still very likely to win, and he should, for his searing performance as a Holocaust refugee. He creates a portrait of a man who is talented and ambitious, sometimes ruthless and sometimes vulnerable, and fully human. But let's acknowledge how strong the category is this year, the rare case where it would be perfectly appropriate for Ralph Fiennes, Colman Domingo or Sebastian Stan to win too.

Nicholas Barber: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) are neck and neck, so it's tricky to say which attributes will tempt the Academy more. Will it be pain, anguish and a Hungarian accent, or a nifty impersonation elevated by some expert singing and guitar-picking? Will it be the long-awaited return to greatness of a Hollywood stalwart who has already won an Oscar, or the crowning of a fresh-faced youngster who has nonetheless amassed a tremendous body of work? It could go either way, but........

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