Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reordered the commercial geography of Europe, and some of the less remarked effects include the emergence of Azerbaijan, traditionally a minor player in European trade, as a potentially important actor for an increasingly large number of European Union member states. None has welcomed this turn of events as warmly as Latvia. Trade between Riga and Baku has increased by over 130% since 2022, driven by logistics, a shared enthusiasm for green technologies, and Azerbaijan’s own modernisation push, which has given Westerners something to sell.

When Latvia's State Secretary of Economy, Raivis Bremšmits, sat down to assess his country's commercial ties with Azerbaijan on Wednesday with local media, the numbers on the page told a story of quiet but accelerating momentum.

Total trade turnover between Latvia and Azerbaijan reached €47mn in 2024, a rise of 10.2% on the previous year. That figure may appear small for two sovereign nations, but it represents the culmination of a three-year run of consistent expansion. In 2022, the bilateral trade relationship sat at roughly €20m, a figure that had itself only recently recovered from the disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic. By 2023, that total had climbed to approximately €43mn, driven in large part by a near-doubling of Latvian imports from Azerbaijan. Latvia's Central Statistical Bureau recorded that imports from Azerbaijan rose by 90.7% in 2023........

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