China’s accelerating nuclear expansion and the sweeping purge of senior military figures have unfolded over a clearly traceable sequence, pointing to a pivotal phase in Xi Jinping’s rule. After more than a decade in power, Xi has consolidated authority to a degree unseen since Mao, yet developments since the early 2020s suggest growing anxiety, both about China’s external security environment and about the reliability of its own armed forces, at a time when tensions over Taiwan have steadily intensified.

Xi’s intention to resolve the Taiwan question has been made explicit on multiple occasions, most prominently in his latest 2026 New Year’s Eve address, where he has reiterated “national reunification” as inevitable and historically unavoidable. These statements have been reinforced since 2022 by increasingly frequent and complex People’s Liberation Army exercises around Taiwan, designed to normalise high-intensity military pressure. By late 2024 and early 2025, drills simulating blockades and joint operations had become routine, coinciding with sharper rhetoric from Beijing and growing concern in Western intelligence assessments.

In parallel, China’s nuclear posture has shifted markedly. Since the early 2020s, US and allied intelligence agencies have reported a rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal and delivery systems, a departure from Beijing’s long-standing doctrine of maintaining a relatively small deterrent. This expansion has taken place against the backdrop of the collapse of key arms control agreements, the modernisation of US nuclear forces, and Russia’s open nuclear threats during the war in Ukraine, developments that have reshaped Beijing’s threat perceptions and strategic calculations.

Internally, Xi has moved decisively to reshape the military’s leadership. Beginning with the purge of senior figures in the PLA Rocket Force in 2023, the campaign........

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