A more fragile global backdrop is beginning to weigh on growth prospects, as highlighted by the International Monetary Fund in its April 2026 World Economic Outlook. The Fund trimmed its global growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points, while sharply lowering projections for oil-exporting economies by 2.6 percentage points. The revisions underscore rising uncertainty driven by persistent energy price volatility and intensifying geoeconomic tensions.

Against this backdrop, Azerbaijan’s economy showed mixed signals in the first quarter of 2026. Headline GDP contracted modestly by 0.3 per cent, largely reflecting external pressures in energy markets and a 3.4 per cent decline in oil production. Yet beneath the surface, the picture appears more resilient. Growth in the non-oil and gas sector continued to anchor economic activity, supported by robust domestic demand, steady investment flows and expansion across services and industry.

Industrial output in the non-oil sector rose by 7.0 per cent, while the information and communications sector expanded by 9.2 per cent and trade by 3.7 per cent. Per capita income increased by 6.6 per cent over the same period. Consumer market activity also strengthened, with the total value of goods sold and services provided rising by 4.6 per cent. Retail trade turnover........

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