Friedrich Merz’s long-anticipated victory in Germany’s federal election on February 23rd marked a shift in the country’s political landscape. His Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured the top spot. However, their 28.6% share of the vote—one of the lowest in their history—dampened celebrations at CDU headquarters. The unpopularity of Olaf Scholz’s outgoing government had raised hopes for a stronger conservative resurgence, yet the real winner of the night was the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which claimed nearly a quarter of Bundestag seats and established dominance in the east, while making significant gains in the west.

The CDU found some relief in the failure of the Free Democrats and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. This allowed Merz to form a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) rather than requiring a third partner. Coalition negotiations are set to begin soon, but the question remains: Can Merz steer Germany—and by extension, Europe—through its mounting crises?

A new era for Germany’s role in Europe?

Germany finds itself at a crossroads. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his threats to scale back U.S. military commitments to NATO, the burden of European security may shift dramatically. In a geopolitical climate where Russian aggression looms and NATO members brace for the worst-case scenario, Germany faces mounting expectations to take the lead.

And that scenario is an attack on NATO territory. NATO is currently conducting its largest military exercise since the Cold War, meant to demonstrate collective military power. With 32 NATO........

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