The South Caucasus is once again at the centre of intense international attention. From Washington to Brussels, and from Moscow to Yerevan, foreign policy circles are ramping up efforts to influence the fate of the long-anticipated peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While calls for peace grow louder, the fundamental issues remain unresolved, and the political backdrop in Armenia is growing increasingly turbulent.

A renewed wave of diplomatic activity has unfolded in recent weeks, marking the second such surge since Baku and Yerevan announced that they had agreed on the main text of the peace agreement. U.S. and EU officials have become more engaged, and statements about peace and regional cooperation are now more frequent, including from U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Yet, conspicuously absent from these statements is any mention of one of the most critical issues: the final dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group—a group that Azerbaijan considers obsolete and counterproductive.

Silence on the Minsk Group, vague promises on development

All parties involved in the process—whether from the West or Russia—are well aware of Azerbaijan’s two key expectations: the removal of any reference to the OSCE Minsk Group and constitutional amendments in Armenia that eliminate territorial claims against Azerbaijan. These are not ambiguous demands; they have been clearly articulated by Azerbaijani officials on numerous occasions.

Despite this clarity, none of the major actors—including the United States, Russia, or France—have voiced support for dissolving the Minsk Group, a format that Azerbaijan views as undermining real peace efforts. Instead, the U.S. and EU have opted to speak in generalities, promising development and investment in the South Caucasus. But what this “development” entails remains vague. The EU, for example, touts the Middle Corridor project and future infrastructure investments, yet the corridor itself is still not fully operational. Then, Russia, on the other hand, aims to revive the "3 3 Format", which has been in a stalemate for a long time.

Meanwhile, one of the core assumptions underlying peace—namely, the........

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