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South Asia is home to more than two billion people, nearly a quarter of the world’s population. When combined with China’s 1.4 billion, this economic corridor includes almost 43 percent of humanity. Yet, trade between these neighbors remains only a fraction of what it could be. This gap is not merely an economic puzzle; it is one of the greatest missed opportunities of recent history.

The widely accepted gravity model of trade shows that countries trade in proportion to their economic size and inversely to the distance between them. By this measure, South Asia and China— geographically close and economically powerful— should be among the world’s most integrated trade blocs. Instead, political tensions, protectionism, and logistical challenges have stifled that potential. Consider India and China: their combined economies dwarf most others, with India’s nominal GDP near $4 trillion and China’s at $18.5 trillion in 2025. Yet, their two-way trade remains under $140 billion annually. Moreover, India faces a significant trade deficit with China, importing substantially more than it exports. Experts estimate this trade could easily be two and a half times higher.

What makes the gap between potential and reality even more striking are the deep historical ties between the region’s peoples. For centuries, monks, scholars, and traders traveled the Himalayan passes, exchanging goods,........

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