Built on Sand: The Iran War Puts Europe Under Pressure

It is only a matter of time before the widening cracks in the EU translate into open secessionist tendencies. 

Thomas Kolbe | March 19, 2026

Amid mounting geopolitical pressure, EU member states are increasingly seeking refuge in national solutions, causing the commission to lose influence. The introduction of joint debt issuance could serve as the EU Commission’s last anchor under Ursula von der Leyen.

Under pressure, the stability and resilience of political systems are laid bare. The conflict in Iran, threatening to plunge the region into weeks of turmoil, intensifies pressure on Europe’s energy supply, particularly in Germany. Past mistakes now appear as widening cracks in the foundation. For Brussels, the geopolitical risks and recent events pose the threat that the consolidation of power in the EU’s center could abruptly fail.

Centrifugal Forces Emerge

A cascade of bad news has reached Ursula von der Leyen in recent days. First, there is Emmanuel Macron’s move, announcing his intention to sue against the EU Commission’s Mercosur trade agreement.

Macron positions himself as a representative of a pan-European farmers’ movement, openly opposing both the EU Commission and von der Leyen, who had just intended to celebrate Mercosur as a major trade-policy success after the sobering defeat in negotiations with the United States.

Even the open-borders policy, an ideological pillar of Brussels’ globalist agenda, now faces resistance within member states. In Greece, the government has regained control over its border regime after massive migration flows were redirected to Crete. Brussels speaks reluctantly about this hardline approach, yet it........

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